More evenly distributed - The future of the gig economy

Week ending Jan 19 2024

In addition to the focus issue on the gig economy, I wanted to bring attention to some news in the AI regulation and governance space.

First, the Australian government released its interim response to "Safe and responsible AI".

It outlines a sensible position where beyond updating existing laws to be relevant an AI context, that government is likely to seek a risk-based approach in close partnership with industry, academic and consumer stakeholders. It does a good job of exploring the territory of concerns around AI from a national governance perspective and sets some clear next steps. It can be summed up as:

In considering the right regulatory approach, the government’s underlying aim will be to ensure the development and deployment of AI systems in Australia in legitimate, but high-risk settings, is safe and can be relied upon, while ensuring the use of AI in low-risk settings can continue to flourish largely unimpeded.

Also, today at the World Economic Forum, a set of briefing papers was released:

• Paper 1 – Presidio AI Framework: Towards Safe Generative AI Model
• Paper 2 – Unlocking Value from Generative AI: Guidance for Responsible Transformation
• Paper 3 – Generative AI Governance: Shaping a Collective Global Future

These papers were developed in partnership with IBM, Accenture, and over 250 contributors from 200 global organisations. They are reasonably short and easy to consume, so I highly recommend at least skimming through them.

If you haven't thought through how to approach some common problems, there is some useful advice and thought starters:

It's clear that the industry and government are both starting to catch up. I was pleased to see in both sets of papers, that there is an acknowledgement that the technology is advancing incredibly fast and that any laws or regulations need to be aware of this fact. They need to be designed in such a way that either they prevent harmful technology from evolving, or that they are able to squarely put accountability in the right places to ensure that harms don't arise.

To me this is the dry run before we get to some really dangerous technologies. Things like advanced bio-printers that are capable of assembling RNA, viruses or other pathogens can be existentially dangerous to humanity. If we can't get this right with AI, we have no hope.

Right, onto the signals:

Signals from the future:

Emerging trends that are likely to drive changes to the way we live, work and do business.

Energy & Sustainability:

• Kitepower's Wind Energy System Fits in a Shipping Container - IEEE Spectrum - Inventor of DSL revolutionises connectivity, kite-based wind energy generators show potential, glowing threads open possibilities in clothing technology.
• Chinese-developed nuclear battery has a 50-year lifespan — Betavolt BV100 built with Nickel-63 isotope and diamond semiconductor material - Betavolt's BV100 atomic energy battery offers long-lasting power, safety, and versatility for various industries, with plans for even more powerful versions in the future.
• Massive new $11 billion project could revolutionize US power grid: ‘What’s amazing … is the speed of deployment’ - Yahoo Tech - Pattern Energy has secured $11 billion in financing for its SunZia project, which includes the largest wind project in the Western Hemisphere and a high-capacity transmission system. Danish manufacturer Vestas will supply the turbines. The project is a major investment in renewable energy and a positive development for the clean energy industry.
• Australia’s road to a circular and sustainable future - Food & Beverage Industry News - Australia is making progress towards a circular and sustainable future in its food and beverage industry through recycling targets and initiatives.
• Israel Becomes First Country to Allow Sale of Cultured Beef - Aleph Farms becomes the first company to receive regulatory approval for cell-cultured beef in Israel, with plans for global expansion.
• Puerto Rico is using residents’ home batteries to back up its grid - Grist - Puerto Rico is implementing a pilot program using residents' home batteries and rooftop solar panels to create a virtual power plant, potentially eliminating the need for fossil fuel-burning peaker plants and saving billions of dollars in infrastructure costs.
• New method uses light to capture carbon dioxide - Futurity - New method uses light to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, requiring less energy than current technologies. Potential for solar-powered carbon capture.

Society:

• Chatbots Will Change How We Talk to People - Technology | The Atlantic - Chatbots have the potential to reshape human communication, leading to the attribution of humanity to AI systems, concerns about privacy, potential cognitive and behavioural changes, and the impact on human relationships. Careful training and investment in civil society are necessary.
• Universities Bend Over Backwards to Accommodate Food Delivery Robots - 404 Media - Universities are accommodating food delivery robots on campus, but concerns about privacy and surveillance arise. The robots face challenges and universities are redesigning infrastructure to support them. The article also highlights a specific incident involving a student being hit by a car and raises concerns about transparency.
• The people paid to spot risks see high chance of ‘global catastrophe’ within 10 years | CNN Business - The World Economic Forum warns of increased likelihood of global catastrophes within the next 10 years, with misinformation and extreme weather events among the top risks.
• Can 3D printing help solve North Texas' affordable housing crisis? - 3D printing technology could solve the affordable housing crisis, but cost and demand remain obstacles.

Future of work

• Jeffrey Katzenberg Says A.I. Will Eliminate 90 Percent of Artist Jobs on Animated Films - IndieWire - AI will replace 90% of artist jobs in animation, impacting the media and entertainment industry. Prompting will become a new creative commodity.
• Jobs of the Future - The Technium - This article explores a variety of unique and unconventional jobs that could be in demand in the future. Some examples include puppet show performer for the dying, personal live-commentary provider at family reunions, and AI-Art promptor.
• Can Machines Teach Better Than Humans? The Controversial Rise of AI Educators - Medium - AI chatbots are being developed as personal tutors in education, aiming to provide personalised learning experiences and close educational gaps efficiently.

Science/Technology:

• Rumours Circulating That James Webb Has Discovered Life on Another World - Futurism - Speculation grows around the discovery of potential signs of life on another planet, fuelled by the detection of a biosignature molecule.
• About the ChatGPT moment for robotics - The integration of ChatGPT into robotics has the potential to improve human-robot interaction and make robots more helpful and interactive. Challenges in implementation and the need for high-quality datasets and hardware advancements are highlighted. A "ChatGPT moment" in robotics is possible, but further advancements are needed.
• Dutch start-up reveals plan for 90-passenger electric aircraft able to travel 500 miles to go into service in 2033. - r/Futurology - Elysian plans to develop an electric aircraft that can carry 90 passengers and travel up to 500 miles on a single charge. The move to electric aircraft is expected to have significant environmental benefits.

Focus Issue - The future of the gig economy:

How the gig economy is reshaping the employment landscape, is a topic of much debate and discussion. As traditional employment models undergo transformation, the gig economy emerges as both a disruptor and innovator in the world of work. The rise of freelance and contract work, as highlighted in a LinkedIn article, underscores a shift towards a more personalised work-life balance. Workers now have the autonomy to choose when and where they work, pursuing passions alongside earning a livelihood. This flexibility, however, comes with trade-offs, including the absence of job security and traditional benefits such as health insurance and retirement savings.

Organisations are increasingly relying on gig workers for short-term or project-based roles. This shift to a more agile workforce may lead to a decrease in worker loyalty and commitment. The gig economy also places a premium on a diverse skill set, challenging workers to stay competitive. Meanwhile, an article suggests that the gig economy is fostering an entrepreneurial spirit among workers, particularly the younger generation who value freedom and personal fulfillment. It also points to the potential for organizations to save on training and office space costs by hiring gig workers.

Yet, the gig economy is not without its challenges as blurred lines between work and personal life can lead to longer hours and increased stress. The responsibility for skills development and career progression falls squarely on the shoulders of gig workers, which can be empowering but also daunting without employer support. To mitigate these challenges, a supportive framework for gig workers, including legal protections and access to benefits, is essential.

Adding to the complexity of the gig economy's impact is the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), which is poised to further disrupt traditional employment models. There is the potential for the distributed economy as a countermeasure to the inequality exacerbated by AI. This model decentralises power and wealth, potentially offering a more equitable distribution of income. Moreover, the adoption of generative AI is transforming the customer-vendor relationship, empowering customers to become creators in their own right. This shift in empowerment could redefine traditional roles and necessitate a reimagining of business models.

Another significant trend is the move towards skills-based hiring. This approach prioritises a candidate's skills over formal credentials, allowing for a more inclusive workforce and addressing talent shortages in technical fields. It aligns with the gig economy's emphasis on skill diversity and adaptability, further challenging traditional employment models.

The most surprising development is the scale and speed at which the gig economy is expanding globally, with countries like India anticipating a gig economy worth trillions. The integration of AI and the shift towards skills-based hiring are also noteworthy, as they signal a profound change in how we define work, employment, and the relationship between businesses and the workforce.

The future of the gig economy looks to be a clear part of the employment landscape of the future, that demands adaptability, continuous learning, and a re-evaluation of traditional employment norms.

Consider these strategic insights:

• Embrace Flexibility: Australian businesses should adapt to the gig economy by offering more flexible work arrangements, catering to the demand for a better work-life balance and attracting a broader talent pool.
• Invest in Skill Development: To remain competitive, companies should provide platforms and resources for continuous learning, helping gig workers enhance their diverse skill sets and stay ahead in the market.
• Create Supportive Frameworks: Develop legal and benefit structures tailored to gig workers, ensuring they have access to protections and benefits akin to traditional employment to foster a sustainable gig workforce.
• Leverage Technology: Utilise advanced technologies such as AI to streamline the hiring process and improve efficiency, while also considering the potential for AI to disrupt existing employment models.
• Adopt Skills-Based Hiring: Shift towards skills-based hiring practices to address talent shortages, especially in technical fields, and build a more inclusive workforce that aligns with the gig economy's dynamics.

Deep strategy:

Longer form articles rich with insights:

• Bringing True Strategic Foresight Back to Business - Harvard Business Review - A great article from re-igniting the drive to bring strategic foresight back into our usual planning repertoire. Strategic foresight is a crucial discipline that empowers organizations to identify opportunities and drive superior performance.

• Strategic Thinking in the C-Suite - Strategic Thinking Institute - The key insight of this article is that strategic thinking is crucial for senior leaders, and they should prioritise it over the "fail fast" mantra. The article suggests three disciplines that can help individuals become more strategic: acumen, allocation, and action. The overall impact is that by adopting this strategic framework, leaders can improve their effectiveness and drive success in their roles.
• KPMG US chief Paul Knopp on AI, pro-growth policies, and DEI - Quartz - Key insight: Paul Knopp, CEO of KPMG US, discusses the business potential of generative AI, the risks of geopolitical conflicts, and the importance of diversity and inclusion efforts.
• The trends defining the $1.8 trillion global wellness market in 2024 - McKinsey & Company - The global wellness market is booming, with consumers seeking science-backed solutions. Key trends include at-home testing, wearables, personalized products, clinically proven ingredients, and doctor recommendations. Women's health, healthy aging, weight management, fitness, gut health, sexual health, and sleep are important areas of growth. Companies must understand consumer needs and provide personalized, science-based solutions to succeed.
• The Coming AI Job Explosion - Futurist Speaker - AI will not lead to job losses but instead become the greatest job creator of all time, fuelling economic growth and innovation. It is a tool to enhance human capabilities and create new opportunities, requiring AI literacy and a commitment to continuous learning.

Business at the point of impact:

Emerging issues and technology trends can change the way we work and do business.

• The Challenges and Benefits of Generative AI in Health Care - Harvard Business Review - Generative AI in healthcare: challenges and benefits. AI's impact and relevance in technology, analytics, innovation, and healthcare.
• Using “Digital Academies” to Close the Skills Gap - Harvard Business Review - Companies are using digital academies to close the digital skills gap and must commit to upskilling to succeed in digital transformation.
• Companies that use AI to replace workers will ultimately lose, Stanford University professor says - Business Insider - AI should complement, not replace, workers. Companies should focus on automation, augmentation, and human skills to maximize productivity.
• AI As Business Partner: Dispensing Advice, Handling The Paperwork - Forbes - AI is a valuable business partner that can automate tasks, provide unbiased advice, and help scale ideas, but human-AI partnerships are still necessary for innovation.
• Outperforming competitors as a data-driven organization - MIT Technology Review - Harnessing the power of generative AI and unified data ecosystems can transform organizations into data-driven powerhouses, improving customer experience and decision-making.
• 2024 and beyond: Will it be economic stagnation or the advent of productivity-driven abundance? - McKinsey & Company - Key Insight: Productivity is essential for sustainable economic growth and competitiveness, and businesses must invest in technology and innovation to address the challenges of slowing productivity growth.
• The Trouble With Your Innovation Contests - MIT Sloan Management Review - Maximizing the effectiveness of innovation contests requires designing them to align with organizational objectives and considering factors such as judges, idea prioritization, and prize structure.
• Rewired and running ahead: Digital and AI leaders are leaving the rest behind - McKinsey & Company - Companies with strong digital and AI capabilities outperform their competitors and generate higher shareholder returns. The gap between leaders and laggards is increasing, with strategic roadmap and adoption and scaling being key areas of focus. Investing in digital and AI capabilities early is crucial for long-term success.

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