More evenly distributed - AI and the crypto winter

Signals from the future:

Emerging trends that are likely to drive changes to the way we live, work and do business.

Climate & Energy

• Top 10 climate science insights unveiled - what should we do? - r/Futurology - A new report highlights the urgency of transformative actions to meet climate goals and emphasizes the role of food systems in climate action.
• Carbon Dioxide Is Becoming More Fearsome, Scientists Find - Futurism - The greenhouse effect of CO2 intensifies with more emissions, leading to faster global warming. Urgent action to curb carbon emissions is needed.
• Could 'carbon passports' that limit how much we travel be in our future? - Business Insider - The concept of a "carbon passport" to limit travellers' greenhouse-gas emissions faces challenges and may not address all travel-related emissions.
• Why the Fed should treat climate change's $150B economic toll like other national crises it's helped fight - Phys.org - News and Articles on Science and Technology - Climate change is costing the US $150 billion annually, with vulnerable communities suffering most. The Federal Reserve must integrate climate instability into monetary policy to ensure stability.
• World's Largest Floating Solar Power Array On Hydropower Plant - CleanTechnica - Expanding the world's largest floating solar power plant in Indonesia showcases the potential for renewable energy and green hydrogen production.
• 3,800-km Cable Offers Glimpse of a Global Power Grid - IEEE Spectrum - Renewable energy project aims to connect Morocco and Britain, revolutionizing global distribution of clean electricity. Challenges and uncertainties remain.
• The World's Biggest Nuclear Fusion Reactor Just Came Online - ScienceAlert - The world's largest fusion reactor, the JT-60SA, has been inaugurated in Japan, bringing us closer to achieving net energy from nuclear fusion.
• French nuclear energy consultant: the future role of nuclear energy in the global energy mix [is] “irrelevant” and “marginal.”. There were 407 operational reactors producing 365 GW in the middle of the year, which is less than installed capacity predictions for solar by the end of the year - r/Futurology - Renewable energy is surpassing nuclear power as the preferred choice due to cost-effectiveness and technological advancements. Nuclear power is facing challenges and its future is uncertain.

Space & Robotics:

• DARPA picks 14 vendors for lunar economy-building study - Technologies being explored include "lunar power; mining and commercial in-situ resource utilization; communications, navigation, and timing; transit, mobility, and logistics; and construction and robotics," according to DARPA. - r/Futurology - DARPA selects 14 companies for a study on developing a lunar economy, focusing on sustainable and profitable solutions in areas like power, mining, and robotics.
• Comment: Here's why you shouldn't overlook the role of collaborative autonomous mobile robots - Retail Technology Innovation Hub - Collaborative autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) are becoming increasingly prevalent in industries, particularly retail. They address labor shortages, improve working conditions, and enhance safety. AMRs signify a transformative shift towards more efficient and safer workplaces.
• How robots are building Amazon's future - No origin title - Robots are revolutionizing Amazon's warehouses, increasing efficiency, reducing injuries, and potentially creating new job opportunities.

Health:

• Exploring the Next Wave of Technological Advancements in Healthcare - r/Futurology - Advancements in technology are revolutionizing healthcare, from AI-powered antibiotics to 3D-printed organs and nanodroplets for targeted drug delivery.
• RadNet Launches New MammogramNow™ Offering - RadNet - RadNet and Walmart are partnering to bring MammogramNow, a new screening mammography service, to Walmart Supercenters. The program aims to improve breast health awareness and accessibility by integrating AI technology into the Walmart environment. This initiative could set a new standard for consumer healthcare.
• Towards Accurate Differential Diagnosis with Large Language Models - arXiv.org - Large language models (LLMs) can assist in differential diagnosis, improving accuracy and comprehensive differential lists in challenging medical cases.
• E.Coli Bacteria Turned Into Bio Ink For Organ 3d Printing - Anton Petrov - New method for 3D printing organs using genetically modified E. coli bacteria could revolutionize organ transplantation and address the organ donor shortage.

Demographics:

• As Gen Zers struggle to cope with late-stage capitalism, they are turning to "radical rest," delusional thinking, and self-indulgence. - r/Futurology - Gen Z faces unique challenges in late-stage capitalism, leading to a shift in priorities towards mental well-being and self-indulgence. They reject traditional norms and embrace lifestyles focused on self-care and disconnection from traditional ideals of success. This will have a lasting impact on industries.
• The emergence of the ‘zero’ consumer - McKinsey & Company - The retail sector has undergone significant disruption, with the emergence of zero consumers and new business opportunities for suppliers. Talent management and sustainability are key priorities.
• Gen Zers are turning to ‘radical rest,’ delusional thinking, and self-indulgence as they struggle to cope with late-stage capitalism - Fortune - Gen Zers are navigating the challenges of late-stage capitalism by prioritizing mental well-being and rejecting traditional financial goals. Their attitudes and behaviors will have a lasting impact on every industry.
• The Eyepopping Factory Construction Boom in the US - Wolf Street - Insights into manufacturing, engineering, economy, and related issues. Discussions on construction, AI, US dollar, vocational training, immigration, education, and more.

Focus Issue: Generative AI and the Crypto Winter

Despite some recent gains of the value of bitcoin over the past few weeks, many consider us to be in a "crypto winter". This is a reference to the "AI winter" that was experienced from the late 1990s to just recently, as generative AI has exploded. These are periods where funding dries up and interest fades from the public consciousness.

A common viewpoint is that the current "AI spring" is contributing to the "crypto winter". Crypto miners who saw falling profits from their mining operations have switched to providing compute infrastructure for AI workloads. Platforms like FedML provide a marketplace for this long-tail of AI compute outside of the mega providers like Amazon, Microsoft and Google.

Despite the crypto winter, a generative art NFT collection sold for a whopping $17 million in September 2023, indicating renewed interest in the market. Generative art, which involves creating artwork based on algorithms or instructions, has gained popularity in the NFT space due to advancements in Web3 technologies.

A good way to look at what might happen with these sorts of technologies is to look at startups. In the Y Combinator Winter Batch of 2023, 18% of the 201 startups accepted were AI/ML-related. This is a significant increase compared to the Winter and Summer Batches of 2021, which had 2.5% and 4% Crypto/Web3 startups, respectively. Does this mean that AI is over-invested?

Analyst firm CCS Insight predicts that generative AI will face a "cold shower" in 2024 as the costs associated with the technology increase. They suggest that smaller developers of generative AI will struggle as it becomes too expensive to run.

An interesting concept is the use of cryptocurrencies in various stages of the generative AI value chain. For example, using smart contracts to pay creatives for access to their works as training data may be a compelling way through some of these legal issues.

Consider these strategic insights:

1. Invest in Education and Training: Businesses should invest in educating their employees about generative AI and cryptocurrencies. This includes understanding the technical aspects, potential applications, and the ethical considerations associated with these technologies.
2. Develop a Technology Adoption Strategy: Businesses need a clear strategy for adopting and integrating generative AI and cryptocurrency technologies into their operations. This involves identifying areas where these technologies can add the most value, assessing the potential risks and benefits, and developing a roadmap for implementation.
3. Focus on Data Security and Privacy: With the adoption of generative AI and cryptocurrencies, data security and privacy become even more critical. Businesses must ensure they have robust cybersecurity measures in place to protect sensitive data. They should also stay informed about regulations and compliance requirements related to data protection and privacy.
4. Explore New Business Models and Revenue Streams: Generative AI and cryptocurrencies open up possibilities for new business models and revenue streams. Businesses should explore these opportunities, such as using AI for personalised customer experiences or leveraging blockchain technology for secure and transparent transactions.
5. Engage in Industry Collaborations and Partnerships: Collaborating with other businesses, technology providers, and research institutions can provide valuable insights and resources for navigating the complexities of generative AI and cryptocurrencies. Partnerships can also help in sharing best practices, reducing costs, and fostering innovation.

Deep strategy:

Longer form articles rich with insights:

• Operational Safety With AI: Chevron’s Ellen Nielsen - MIT Sloan Management Review - Chevron is leveraging AI and data-driven decision-making to achieve higher returns and lower carbon emissions. They are implementing AI initiatives such as robots, digital twins, sensors, and citizen development programs. This podcast is a good listen.
• 3 Traps to Avoid When Executing Your Strategy - Harvard Business Review - Avoid the traps of too many opinions, lack of action, and accountability to execute successful strategies.
• Why We Should Settle Mars - Quillette - Key Insight: The idea of human settlement in space, specifically on Mars, has significant potential benefits and challenges that can be overcome with advancements in technology. It offers advantages in terms of resources, scientific knowledge, and as a backup plan for humanity.

Business at the point of impact:

Emerging issues and technology trends can change the way we work and do business.

• Deloitte’s chief futurist warns against letting AI blind you to other priorities - Fast Company - technology - The key insight is that in order to access the content on the Fast Company website, users need to enable JavaScript and disable ad blockers.
• Leadership Development Is Failing Us. Here’s How to Fix It - MIT Sloan Management Review - Leadership development programs often lack accountability and fail to produce lasting changes. Companies should focus on program vision, method, and impact to make better decisions.
• Unpacking Coca-Cola’s digital strategy: Building up AI, cyber security and next-gen tech - beveragedaily.com - Coca-Cola's digital strategy focuses on upgrading capabilities, increasing digital media spend, and embracing digital disruption.
• The Twentysomethings Shaping The Future Of Work, Talking Remote With Zapier’s CEO And More - Forbes - Forbes' Under 30 list showcases young individuals making significant contributions to various industries.
• What does a chief transformation officer do? - McKinsey & Company - Key Insight: Effective incentives programs can drive successful business transformations by encouraging participation, outperformance, and behaviour change.
• 'We all got AI-ed': The Australian jobs being lost to AI under the radar - ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) - AI is creating jobs in Australia, but economists warn that more workers will be displaced in the future.
• Carbon removals: How to scale a new gigaton industry - McKinsey & Company - CDR is crucial for achieving net-zero emissions, with potential for a $1.2 trillion market by 2050. Investment and innovation are needed to scale up CDR and meet global goals.
• How AI could power the climate breakthrough the world needs - CNN - AI is a powerful tool in addressing the climate crisis, helping farmers adapt, optimizing resources, and predicting permafrost melting.
• Preview: What would it take to scale critical climate technologies? - McKinsey & Company - Scaling up critical climate technologies is crucial for deep decarbonization, but innovation and cost reductions are needed. Different countries have different readiness levels. McKinsey plans to publish a report in 2024 with detailed analysis and implications.
• Nobel Prize-winning economist weighs in on how ChatGPT-like tools are transforming the future of work-1 year since its launch - Fortune Europe - AI-driven productivity increases could lead to a shorter workweek, according to Nobel laureate Christopher Pissarides.