More evenly distributed - Accelerating climate change

Welcome to this edition of More evenly distributed. I had a few weeks off due to school holidays and a few other commitments, so there's a lot to cover. Here we go!

Signals from the future

Emerging trends that are likely to drive changes to the way we live, work and do business.

• Bricklaying robots can now build tennis-court-sized walls in 4 hours - New Atlas - This extraordinary bricklaying robot rocks up to a building site looking like a regular truck, then extends a 32-m (105-ft) boom arm and starts precisely laying up to 300 large masonry blocks an hour.
• South Africa Collapse – 12 Hour Daily Blackouts and Theft of Electric Grid Copper - NextBigFuture.com - An interesting development for middle-income countries pursuing electrification of their grids.
• Accenture’s Life Trends forecasts a decade of continued transformative change sparked by generative AI and shifts in consumer values - Campaign Brief - Five global macro-cultural trends forecasted to revolutionise how businesses and leaders remain relevant to their customers while also accelerating growth.
• DARPA Seeks to Protect Virtual Reality Against "Cognitive Attacks"- Futurism - DARPA working on ways to prevent soldiers from being attacked while wearing AR/VR.
• Solar wafer prices hit record lows - PV Magazine International - Costs for solar are only going in one direction.
• Replacing Engineering Managers with AI Agents -An interesting idea for middle-management - AI that's been trained on countless software projects from the past decades, holds knowledge from all leading management methodologies, and has real-time data access to the latest technology trends and best practices.
• How Disney Packed Big Emotion Into a Little Robot - IEEE Spectrum - Disney Research has spent the last year developing a new system that leverages reinforcement learning to turn an animator’s vision into expressive motions that are robust enough to work almost anywhere, whether that’s a stage at IROS or a Disney theme park or a forest in Switzerland.
• Apple’s Innovative Use of Smart Mattress Technology for Health Tracking - Impact Lab – A Laboratory of the Future Human Experience - Initially focused on enhancing sleep tracking, Apple has continued its research to incorporate sensors into bedding, making them less intrusive for users.
• Prophetic’s Halo Headband: Pioneering Lucid Dream Control Awaits - Impact Lab – A Laboratory of the Future Human Experience - AI startup Prophetic is aiming to revolutionise the way people sleep with a unique headband device called the Halo, which has the potential to initiate and control lucid dreams. Does this open a new frontier for health influencers?
• Prada Is Officially Working on NASA’s Lunar Spacesuit - Futurism - As space exploration becomes increasingly commercialised, I'd expect we'll see more of these partnerships.
• They're Putting Sails on Giant Container Ships - Futurism - A growing number of countries have committed to developing wind-ships to reduce fuel use and carbon emissions.
• IonQ Unveils Rack-Mounted Quantum Computers - IEEE Spectrum - Quantum computing seems to be emerging from the lab and into the datacentre.

Focus issue: Accelerating climate change

I often wonder what macaroni artwork schoolchildren of the future will design when they picture people from our time. Based on some recent reports, which are not surprising at all, we're sleepwalking into a climate catastrophe.

Just consider these two signals:

• Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global - livescience.com - As Earth’s climate warms, an enormous influx of cold, fresh water from melting ice sheets is spilling into oceans, possibly causing the Gulf Stream to slow or even veer toward outright collapse which will drastically alter the climate in many parts of the world, mostly in UK/Europe. I remember seeing prediction two decades ago.
• Will the Earth breach its 1.5C guardrail sooner than we thought? - the Guardian - we might by early next year the world may have reached 1.5C warming above the long-term temperature average and that the most worrying thing about the current heat is that it’s broadly consistent with what scientists have long forecast would happen.

There's many more, from warnings from insurance companies to the Australian government to adapt to extreme weather or face soaring premiums within 5 years, to warnings from UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that we're speeding toward catastrophe.

The impact of accelerating climate change

A useful tool for understanding what might happen is to review the scenarios prepared by the IPCC in 2021 known as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. They are based on a classic 2x2 scenario matrix which has put Adaptability and Mitigation as the critical uncertainties and included a ‘middle of the road’ option. The scenarios are:

• SSP1: Sustainability (Taking the Green Road)
• SSP2: Middle of the Road
• SSP3: Regional Rivalry (A Rocky Road)
• SSP4: Inequality (A Road divided)
• SSP5: Fossil-fuelled Development (Taking the Highway)

Here are some brief summaries of each scenario:

SSP1: Sustainability (Taking the Green Road)

The world shifts gradually, but pervasively, toward a more sustainable path, emphasizing more inclusive development that respects perceived environmental boundaries. Management of the global commons slowly improves, educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition, and the emphasis on economic growth shifts toward a broader emphasis on human well-being. Driven by an increasing commitment to achieving development goals, inequality is reduced both across and within countries. Consumption is oriented toward low material growth and lower resource and energy intensity.

SSP2: Middle of the road

The world follows a path in which social, economic, and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns. Development and income growth proceeds unevenly, with some countries making relatively good progress while others fall short of expectations. Global and national institutions work toward but make slow progress in achieving sustainable development goals. Environmental systems experience degradation, although there are some improvements and overall, the intensity of resource and energy use declines. Global population growth is moderate and levels off in the second half of the century. Income inequality persists or improves only slowly and challenges to reducing vulnerability to societal and environmental changes remain.

SSP3: Regional rivalry (A Rocky Road)

A resurgent nationalism, concerns about competitiveness and security, and regional conflicts push countries to increasingly focus on domestic or, at most, regional issues. Policies shift over time to become increasingly oriented toward national and regional security issues. Countries focus on achieving energy and food security goals within their own regions at the expense of broader-based development. Investments in education and technological development decline. Economic development is slow, consumption is material-intensive, and inequalities persist or worsen over time. Population growth is low in industrialized and high in developing countries. A low international priority for addressing environmental concerns leads to strong environmental degradation in some regions.

SSP4: Inequality (A Road Divided)

Highly unequal investments in human capital, combined with increasing disparities in economic opportunity and political power, lead to increasing inequalities and stratification both across and within countries. Over time, a gap widens between an internationally connected society that contributes to knowledge- and capital-intensive sectors of the global economy, and a fragmented collection of lower-income, poorly educated societies that work in a labour intensive, low-tech economy. Social cohesion degrades and conflict and unrest become increasingly common. Technology development is high in the high-tech economy and sectors. The globally connected energy sector diversifies, with investments in both carbon-intensive fuels like coal and unconventional oil, but also low-carbon energy sources. Environmental policies focus on local issues around middle- and high-income areas.

SSP5: Fossil-Fuelled Development (Taking the Highway)

This world places increasing faith in competitive markets, innovation, and participatory societies to produce rapid technological progress and development of human capital as the path to sustainable development. Global markets are increasingly integrated. There are also strong investments in health, education, and institutions to enhance human and social capital. At the same time, the push for economic and social development is coupled with the exploitation of abundant fossil fuel resources and the adoption of resource and energy intensive lifestyles around the world. All these factors lead to rapid growth of the global economy, while global population peaks and declines in the 21st century. Local environmental problems like air pollution are successfully managed. There is faith in the ability to effectively manage social and ecological systems, including by geo-engineering if necessary.

While the worst-case scenario (SSP5: Taking the Fossil Highway) is increasingly being ruled out as implausible, the most likely outcome is something between SSP2 Middle of the Road and SSP3 Regional Rivalry with an outcome of 3C for 2100. Given the recent acceleration news, plus geopolitical instabilities (Ukraine, Israel/Gaza), I'd say we're looking more the SSP3 Regional Rivalry.

This means that organisations in Australia are likely to face:

1. Regulatory Changes: With evolving political trends and increasing focus on climate change, organisations might face new regulations and standards aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainable practices. This could result in changes to operational processes and increased costs.
2. Economic Uncertainty: Uncertain economic trends could potentially disrupt supply chains, particularly for organisations reliant on global trade. Additionally, shifts to lower emission technologies could impact productivity and demand significant investment.
3. Workforce Transitions: The increasing adoption of remote and flexible work arrangements may require organisations to adapt their workforce strategies and management practices. Also, the demand for tech-savvy staff could escalate, heightening the challenge of talent acquisition and retention.
4. Cybersecurity Threats: As reliance on technology increases, so does the risk of cyber threats. These threats could result in substantial financial and reputational damage.
5. Sustainability Expectations: Increased societal focus on climate change and employee prioritisation of companies that are environmentally responsible could impact organisations in terms of reputation and talent attraction.

Actionable insights for organisations:

1. Invest in Renewable Energy: Transitioning to renewable energy sources for operations can significantly lower carbon footprints and demonstrate commitment to sustainable practices.
2. Enhance Digital Infrastructure: A robust digital infrastructure enables flexible and remote working arrangements, reducing the need for commuting and thereby decreasing carbon emissions.
3. Promote a Circular Economy: Implement waste management strategies aimed at reusing, recycling, and reducing waste. This could include everything from office supplies to product design and packaging.
4. Review Supply Chain: Ensure suppliers are aligned with your sustainability goals. This might involve sourcing locally to reduce transportation emissions and choosing suppliers who also prioritize sustainability.
5. Develop a Climate Risk Management Plan: Identify potential risks from climate change and develop strategies to mitigate these risks. This could involve investing in climate-resilient infrastructure or diversifying supply chains.
6. Increase Transparency: Report openly on sustainability goals, progress, and challenges. This can enhance reputation and build trust with stakeholders, including employees, customers, and investors.
7. Promote Green Travel: Encourage employees to use public transport, bike, walk, or carpool to work. This can be facilitated through initiatives such as providing bike storage facilities, organising carpooling, or subsidising public transport costs.
8. Develop Training Programs: Create awareness among employees about the importance of sustainability and train them on how they can contribute to it, from energy conservation to recycling.
9. Review IT Infrastructure: Implement energy-efficient hardware, encourage virtual meetings to reduce travel, and consider cloud computing which can be more energy-efficient than maintaining in-house servers.
10. Partner with environmentally-focused organisations: Collaborate with non-profits or green businesses to contribute to environmental causes or participate in carbon offset programs.

Emerging strategy

A deeper dive into how key topics influencing today's strategies.

• Artificial General Intelligence Is Already Here - NOEMA - A long article arguing that we've likely already seen the emergence of AGI.
• The future of work is optimization - Fast Company - Rather than focusing on location, focus on optimisation. Aligning employees with business strategy retains 30% more top performers and drives 34% higher performance. But this is something that the CEO must lead.
• Is Your Team Caught in the Solution Fixation Trap? - Harvard Business Review - A fascinating dissection of how some team's work. The authors identify the solution fixation trap, which emerges when a team rushes into discussing possible solutions before fully understanding the problem at hand. Higher performing teams spend more time "processing information" and delay "solution exploration".
• How Ghost Scenarios Haunt Strategy Execution - MIT Sloan Management Review - Executives that fail to explore "ghost scenarios", the possible futures that could exist of unexamined assumptions, find that they may come back to haunt executives and companies in unanticipated and unwelcome ways.
• New Technologies Arrive in Clusters. What Does That Mean for AI? - Harvard Business Review - This technology is unmatched at recognizing patterns in data, and its proponents argue it has the potential to be an enormous research laboratory that never stops working, a paradigm-buster that unlocks human creativity, an accelerator for human ingenuity, and a window into reality that is currently beyond reach.
• Making your strategic planning practical – how much time should I spend? - Center for Simplified Strategic Planning - Some very successful companies – including YouTube, Canva and the Walt Disney Corporation – adhere to the dictum that 10 percent of your executive team’s time should be devoted to strategic planning.
• In A World Of Ubiquitous AI, We Need Organizations With Soul - Forbes - Business - To create nurturing cultures capable of driving success in a fast-changing world, we need to start working on ourselves as leaders and retooling our definition of success to encompass tangible results and intangible values that pave the way for continuing growth and development.

Point of impact

Emerging issues and technology trends can change the way we work and do business. These articles tend to be longer form and are rich with insights:

• How to gain and sustain a competitive edge through transformation - McKinsey & Company - The authors identified seven actions in particular that are most likely to increase the odds of a transformation’s success—by both achieving and sustaining performance improvements and helping organisations establish a lasting competitive advantage.
• Generative AI’s Impact across the operations value chain - McKinsey & Company - With generative AI, you suddenly have this new technology that can have a really drastic impact across the whole business, compared to the operational improvements we typically make, with people asking, “What can I do, what can I ask gen AI, and how can I apply it to make my job more fun?”
• Change management will be critical to implementing generative AI - McKinsey & Company - The big conversation I wish was happening more among the organisations currently exploring gen AI is how to make the change stick and scale. What change will be needed in the organization to unlock the benefits?
• The 8 Biggest Future Of Work Trends In 2024 Everyone Needs To Be Ready For Now - Forbes - Innovation - As technology transforms more areas of work and business, ensuring we’re equipped to use it effectively is a priority for us all, from understanding the importance of data-driven decision-making to developing an awareness of cyber threats, developing emotional intelligence and empathy to counter for technology’s lack of it, and adopting the shift in mindset needed to work or lead effectively when your team is spread around the world.
• How To Avoid An AI Crisis - ChiefExecutive.net - Move too fast and you might do real reputational damage, warns a communications expert. Here’s what to consider before embracing artificial intelligence.
• Companies creating ‘transformation fatigue’ - Fortune - A panel discussion on leading organisations through rapid transformations.
• 5 Steps to a Complete Meeting Overhaul - Kellogg Insight - To make the conversation more forward-looking, Khosla recommends that leaders flip the meeting’s focus so that only 30 percent is past-focused while 70 percent addresses priorities ahead: in other words, a “Business Outlook Meeting,” or BOM.
• 81% Of Companies Have Generative AI Teams: Smaller Enterprises Lead - Forbes - Innovation - 81% of enterprise companies have established an internal generative AI team with at least 10 members, according to a new study of 672 executives at companies with annual revenues over $50 million by Wharton professor Stefano Puntoni and consultancy GBK Collective. Executives at companies with $50-200 million in revenue personally use generative AI frequently, with 57% reporting using it weekly.
• Leading In The AI Revolution: The Case For A Chief Artificial Intelligence Officer - Forbes - Innovation - The CAIO works with other leaders and employees to identify and prioritize AI opportunities, develop and manage AI projects, and ensure that AI is used ethically and responsibly. A CAIO can help companies optimize their return on investment (ROI) by identifying high-impact AI use cases, managing resources efficiently, and continuously, as well as cross-functionally, evaluating the performance of AI systems.
• Generative AI Is Headed for a Financial "Cold Shower" Next Year, Analyst Predicts - Futurism - But not all experts are so sure, with one analyst telling CNBC that he thinks generative AI is going to run into some major reality problems that amount to a "cold shower" by next year.
• Domino’s CTO on Microsoft AI Partnership, Future of Autonomous Delivery - Food On Demand - An interesting twist on using generative AI to help store managers be more effective.
• Five Ways Leaders Can Turn Pushback Into Progress - MIT Sloan Management Review - Effective leaders not only avoid suppressing uncertainty, ignoring power dynamics, and assuming that the most vocal represent consensus opinion — they also take active countermeasures that reflect the guidelines in the article.
• 5 Ways to Develop Talent for an Unpredictable Future - Harvard Business Review - As Stanford’s Erik Brynjolfsson estimates, for every dollar organisations spend on technology, they need to invest an additional nine dollars in talent and related processes.
• Generative AI Unleashed: Charting The Enterprise Future - Forbes - Innovation - This article will provide a sharp look at the current state of generative AI, real-world use cases that demonstrate its transformative power, critical considerations for adoption, and a strategic roadmap for enterprise leaders to seize opportunities while mitigating risks.

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