Signals from the future:
Emerging trends that are likely to drive changes to the way we live, work and do business.
- Giant batteries drain economics of gas power plants. 68 gas plant projects put on hold or cancelled globally as grid-connected storage undermines 20 year revenue model. - Reuters - Falling prices for renewables and battery storage undermine the economic case for gas plants. Which way do you think this trend is going?
- The world may be on track for tripling renewables and that's what we need - electrek.co - The incessant march of renewables continues to accelerate and if backed by more ambitious targets to supercharge the deployment of solar and wind, will make it easier to realise targets in 2035 and beyond.
- The Next Power Plant Is on the Roof and in the Basement - The New Yorker - Virtual Power Plants enable smarter use of energy in grids, saving money.
- Solar-powered device produces clean water and clean fuel at the same time - University of Cambridge - A floating, solar-powered device that can turn contaminated water or seawater into clean hydrogen fuel and purified water, anywhere in the world, making more off-grid living possible.
- Solar-plus-storage outperforms diesel in military survivability analysis - pv magazine USA - The military gets better performance from solar + battery over diesel generators.
- NYC Will Soon Be Home to 15 Robot-Run Vegetarian Restaurants from Chipotle's Founder - Eater NY - The founder of Chipotle is opening a new endeavour called Kernel, a vegetarian fast-casual restaurant that will be operated mostly by robots.
- Scientists 3D print a robotic hand with human-like bones and tendons - Ars Technica - Scientists figured out a way to 3D print the world’s first robotic hand with an internal structure composed of human-like bones, ligaments, and tendons.
- A robotics developer says advanced robots will be created much sooner than most people expect. The same approach that has rapidly advanced AI is about to do the same for robotics. - TechCrunch - The growth trajectory of robotic foundation models is accelerating at a very rapid pace and we’ll see an exponential number of commercially viable robotic applications deployed at scale in 2024.
- I flew to China to visit a robot butler - Anthony Castrio's Newsletter - A nice little video diary and write up of a small team in China building robot butlers. I have the feeling this looks a lot like the future.
- White House lays out possible rules for private space stations and more - space.com - The US is clarifying agency responsibilities for space in anticipation of future expansion into space.
- Exploring Military Perspectives on Human Augmentation Technologies - Humanity Redefined - A report was researched and written by a team of German, Swedish, Finnish, and British Defence specialists exploring how various emerging human augmenting technologies can change societies and how those changes can impact warfare.
- Pulsar Fusion Plans Orbital Fusion Tests by 2027 - NextBigFuture.com - Development of a new space engine capable of travelling 20x the speed of current propulsion methods.
Focus Issue: Jobs & Automation
A great place to start looking into the future of jobs is aptly named Future of Jobs Report 2023 by the World Economic Forum. This report clearly points to divergent paths that labour markets are treading globally. High-income countries are tightening up their labour markets while lower-income counterparts grapple with higher unemployment. An interesting insight is where automation seems to be both a destroyer and creator of work. For every cashier replaced by a self-checkout machine, there new role created for a sustainability specialist.
There report is comprehensive - almost 300 pages chocked full of stats and numbers. For example, this graph outlines expected impacts of global trends on job creation or destruction:
Consider also the arrival of robot-run restaurants like Kernel - a vegetarian restaurant chain opening in New York where staff are augmented by robots. But this isn't just about efficiency; it's a bold reimagining of the dining experience.
Also worth exploring is the recent "Reshoring Renaissance" as described by MIT Sloan Management Review. Companies are bringing manufacturing back home, spurred by policy and a newfound geopolitical need for domestic production. But the only way the economics stack up in high income economies is by using substantial amounts of automation, or in the case of Germany, to replace retiring workers by using to robots to fill the void.
Meanwhile, the potential of generative AI to turbocharge productivity for knowledge work, as Bain & Company notes, is not without its price. Not only do we need to resolve concerns around AI safety there is also a significant skills and capability gap in the workplaces that should be taking advantage of this technology.
All of these developments perhaps point to finally resolving the Productivity paradox - that despite amazing gains in information technology since the 1980s that US and advanced economies have experiences frustratingly low productivity:
Could the confluence of these technologies will finally unlock the productivity that has been so far elusive?
Even if not, it is clear that there are significant drivers behind increasing use of advanced automation. Consider these strategic insights:
- Embrace Automation with a Balanced Approach: While technology is creating new job opportunities, it's crucial to consider the human cost and ensure that advancements do not come at the expense of our humanity.
- Invest in Upskilling: There is an urgent need to upskill the workforce to prevent a talent mismatch, as technical skills in AI and machine learning become increasingly valuable.
- Address the Talent Gap with Robotics: As demographics shift, such as in Germany, leverage automation and robotics to fill labour shortages and maintain productivity.
- Capitalise on the Reshoring Trend: Businesses should consider the benefits of domestic production and how they can take advantage of the reshoring renaissance to strengthen local economies and supply chains.
- Foster Inclusivity in the Workforce: As the labour market changes, it's important to ensure that all groups are included in the opportunities presented by the new era of labour and productivity.
Deep strategy:
Longer form articles rich with insights:
- Who is productive, and who isn’t? Here’s how to tell. - McKinsey & Company - Discover the different types of employees in organizations and how their motivations impact productivity. Learn how to reengage disengaged employees, manage disruptors, and keep thriving stars engaged. Understand the importance of addressing employee concerns in hybrid and remote work environments and how to improve engagement and productivity through interventions such as fairness, development opportunities, recognition, and a supportive work environment.
- Generative AI: The Mindset Divide That Will Determine Your Success - Forbes - Innovation - Find out the key insights behind the generative AI mindset and its importance for future success. Learn how AI enhances productivity and innovation without replacing human attributes. Understand the qualities needed to develop a generative AI mindset, and how it parallels successful adoption of transformative technologies in the past.
- The Eight Deadly Sins of Analysing the Energy Transition - The Climate Brink - Here's eight common mistakes made when analysing the energy transition and learn how to avoid them. Gain insights on the importance of considering all energy sources, not just renewables, and understand the need to go beyond cost analysis. Explore the role of innovation, behaviour change, global context, policy, and regulation in driving the transition towards a sustainable energy future.
- Navigating the new normal: Operations insights for 2024 - McKinsey & Company - Discover the key insights from McKinsey's podcast episode on navigating the evolving economic landscape. Learn about the importance of generative AI and automation, purchasing under inflationary circumstances, and prioritizing sustainability in operations.
- Ten key requirements for a systemic approach to climate adaptation - McKinsey & Company - Learn about the importance of adaptation in addressing climate change and the key requirements for a systemic approach. Understand the need for a climate risk management mindset, technological and behavioural adaptation levers, economic and societal adjustments, and governance and institutional support.
- Customer experience horizons - MIT Technology Review - Discover the key insights from a report that highlights the importance of customer experience (CX) and employee experience (EX) in driving brand loyalty and organizational success. Learn how organizations can transform their business by integrating CX and EX strategies and explore the strategies and technologies that will shape the future of customer experience and contact centre employee experience.
Business at the point of impact:
Emerging issues and technology trends can change the way we work and do business.
- How To Best Leverage Generative AI For Your Business - Forbes - Learn how to successfully implement generative AI in business by identifying specific use cases, leveraging proprietary data and expertise, and starting small to gain expertise and reduce costs.
- Climate: The ultimate industry disruptor - Strategy+Business - Learn how climate change is not just an operational threat but a force that disrupts industries. Discover the importance of rethinking business models to minimize harm and seize growth opportunities.
- Use of AI could create a four-day week for almost one-third of workers - the Guardian - A new study suggests that implementing AI could enable one-third of workers to have a four-day workweek by 2033. This could improve work-life balance, prevent mass unemployment, and reduce illnesses.
- Navigating the New Risks and Regulatory Challenges of GenAI - Harvard Business Review - Learn about the risks and regulatory challenges posed by generative AI and how businesses can develop policies to navigate them effectively.
- Use Open Source for Safer Generative AI Experiments - MIT Sloan Management Review - Companies integrating AI face concerns about data security and ownership. Generative AI models like OpenAI's ChatGPT raise copyright and data ownership questions. Licensing agreements with AI developers have not always been successful. Building generative AI solutions locally is a potential solution but presents cost challenges. .
- More than half of tech workers think AI is overrated, study finds - Business Insider - More than half of tech workers believe that AI is overrated due to a lack of evidence showing its impact on businesses. Non-managerial employees are more sceptical, while upper management is more favourable. However, few think their employers are over-investing in AI.
- How Copilot Turns Everyone Into a Manager - r/Futurology - Microsoft's new technology, Copilot, is transforming everyone into a manager by automating routine tasks in the workplace. Contrary to expectations, experienced people managers find it easier to adapt to Copilot than their less experienced counterparts. To fully utilise Copilot's capabilities, employees need to develop management skills, emphasising the need to invest in developing employees' management capabilities for organizations to benefit the most from this new era of technology.
- America's Largest Health Insurer Denying Care with AI That's Wrong 90 Percent of the Time, Lawsuit Alleges - Futurism - UnitedHealthcare is facing a lawsuit for allegedly using an inaccurate AI algorithm to deny coverage to severely ill patients. The algorithm's predictions are wrong 90% of the time. The lawsuit claims that UnitedHealth breached its contract and highlights the AI's lack of consideration for individual circumstances.
- Use GenAI to Uncover New Insights into Your Competitors - Harvard Business Review - Generative AI is not just for creating content but can also be used to analyse existing information and uncover strategic insights. This is particularly valuable in competitive intelligence, where AI can sift through documents to provide valuable insights about competitors and the market.
- What Will Define Australia's Digital Future? Lessons For CEOs - Forbes - Learn how the Australian government aims to make Australia a top 10 digital economy by 2030, benefiting the economy and creating jobs. Discover how the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated digital transformation and increased inclusivity. Explore the key technologies reshaping innovation and business models.
- What CEOs Need to Know About the Costs of Adopting GenAI - Harvard Business Review - Learn why CEOs need to understand the costs of implementing generative AI tools (genAI) and how to integrate cost control into their decision making. Discover strategies for managing costs, talent, and infrastructure to create a sustainable and impactful genAI journey.
- A Future Of Reusable Identity Is On The Way - Forbes - Innovation - Learn about the future of digital identity verification and how reusable identities can transform industries. Discover how individuals can verify their identity once and share it across multiple platforms. Find out about the global market for reusable identity and how countries like Sweden and Estonia have adopted digital verification services.
- Surround Yourself with Colleagues Who Boost Your Performance - Harvard Business Review - Learn how to build an effective network that boosts your performance by including people who support your weaknesses, rather than just reinforcing your strengths.
- Can AI be the burnout cure we've been waiting for? - Campaign Asia - Embrace AI as a tool to combat burnout and engage a disengaged workforce. Automate mundane tasks to free up time and mental energy for more meaningful work. AI can help alleviate "rust out" and re-engage individuals in their roles.
- Beyond Doomsday: Why AI Promises a Brighter Future - Forbes - Innovation - Discover how artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to create a more prosperous and equitable society. This article explores how AI can create new jobs, improve healthcare and education, and amplify human qualities. Learn how the risks associated with AI can be managed and how we can continue pushing the boundaries of AI for a brighter future.
