This week saw the highly anticipated launch of the Starliner/AtlasV launch by NASA/Boeing, as well as the launch of SpaceX Starship for a fourth test mission, all while SpaceX broke industry records with 14 launches in one month. In total there were 28 launches in May alone (with only one failure for a North Korean spy satellite).
To say that we're in a new space race is an understatement.
But it's very different this time. It's commercial interests driving the race to get access to new resources and technologies, which will have a profound impact on the shape of the economy of the future. Mix in the various geopolitical issues that arise and it is certainly worth preparing for this disruptive force.
But first, let's go through this week's signals...
Signals from the future:
Emerging trends that are likely to drive changes to the way we live, work and do business.
Society:
- Researchers Say Russia Is Using AI to Predict Terrorism at Paris Olympics - Futurism - AI technology utilised by Russia to create false narratives of violence at 2024 Paris Olympics highlights the dangerous implications of AI-driven disinformation campaigns.
- This MIT Chatbot Simulates Your ‘Future Self.’ It’s Here to Help You Make Better Decisions. - Singularity Hub - Engaging with AI-powered future self-chatbots boosts emotional connection, motivation for long-term goals, and potentially improves decision-making.
- School shooting architecture classroom design - The Wall Street Journal - How classrooms are being designed to protect against school shooters.
- The Future of Labor - The Atlantic - Empowering labour movements through strategic initiatives and community engagement for a sustainable future of organised labour in the U.S.
- Addressing South Korea’s Demographic Crisis: Strategies for Reversing the Decline in Birth Rates - Impact Lab – South Korea's declining birth rates pose severe economic and social challenges, requiring innovative policies to reverse the trend and support population growth.
Climate / Energy:
- ‘Perfect storm’ hurricane season could be break records - Futurity - Prepare for an above-average 2024 hurricane season due to warm ocean temps, La Niña, and reduced winds.
- Small modular reactors: still too expensive, too slow and too risky - Analysis & Policy Observatory - Investing in small modular reactors for energy transition may not be viable due to high costs, slow construction, and risks, advocating for renewable energy focus.
Future of work:
- Gen Z Redefines the Workforce with a Freelance Revolution - Impact Lab – Gen Z is reshaping the workforce by embracing freelancing for flexibility, control, and pursuing their passions. This trend highlights a shift towards non-traditional career paths.
- 2024 HR Trends: Mental Health And The Year Of AI - Forbes - Prioritising mental health in the workplace is critical for employee well-being, productivity, and organisational success. Managers play a key role in supporting this effort.
Focus Issue - The space economy and opportunities for businesses
The global space economy is booming and projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from $630 billion in 2023, representing an enormous opportunity for businesses and economic growth. This expansion is being driven by rapid advancements in space technologies, increasing demand for connectivity and data services, and the emergence of innovative commercial space companies and visionary leaders.
Growth in the space economy is expected to come from both traditional "backbone" applications like satellites and launchers, as well as new "reach" applications where space tech helps terrestrial industries generate revenue. AI, machine learning, greater mobile connectivity needs, and solutions to global challenges like climate change are all contributing to the sector's projected annual growth rate that is double that of GDP.
The space industry is being transformed from a national competition to a commercial and resource-oriented endeavour, with a particular focus on the lunar south pole. Commercial space startups and leaders like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos are opening up new opportunities in space infrastructure, lunar exploration and mining. The commercial space market could double to $1.1 trillion by 2030.
Australia is poised to capitalise on the space economy, with its space industry currently valued at around A$5 billion annually. The country has geographic and technical advantages, including proximity to the equator, clear skies, emerging space tech, and a focus on in-space manufacturing. Government support through the Australian Space Agency, initiatives like the A$150 million Moon to Mars program, and $3 billion in total investment from 2018-2023 are accelerating its space industry growth and global collaborations.
To fully realise the economic and societal benefits of space, issues like space debris, regulatory inconsistencies, and equitable access need to be addressed. Despite some recent investment downturns, the long-term funding and innovation outlook for the space sector remains positive. Updated international governance frameworks that emphasise safety, ethics, sustainability and align with human values will be key, especially as private sector involvement in space increases.
The new space race presents massive opportunities for businesses - in advanced technologies, lunar and asteroid mining, space infrastructure and transportation, Earth observation and connectivity, and more. Forward-thinking companies that invest in space capabilities and partner with commercial space leaders will be well-positioned for growth. However, they must also navigate an evolving regulatory landscape and consider the broader implications of space development on the economy, environment and humanity. The next decade will be pivotal in establishing a sustainable, inclusive and thriving space economy that benefits all.
Consider these strategic insights:
- Identify niche opportunities in the space supply chain: Assess your company's capabilities and explore how they could be applied to emerging needs in the space industry, such as specialised components, materials, or services that support space infrastructure and missions.
- Collaborate with space startups and agencies: Seek out partnerships with innovative local space companies and government initiatives to leverage their expertise, access funding opportunities, and contribute to the growth of the space ecosystem.
- Develop space-enabled solutions for terrestrial industries: Explore how space technologies, such as satellite imagery, remote sensing, and advanced analytics, can be integrated into your existing products or services to create new value propositions and revenue streams in sectors like agriculture, mining, or environmental monitoring.
- Invest in upskilling and talent development: Build your company's space capabilities by providing training and development opportunities for employees in areas like space systems engineering, data analysis, and space law, ensuring your workforce is prepared to capitalise on the expanding space economy.
Deep strategy:
Longer form articles rich with insights:
- How to Future-Proof Your Strategy - HBR.org - Strategic foresight and long-term scenario planning are key for organisations to navigate uncertainty effectively and build resilient strategies.
- Why You Need to Stress Test Your Strategies (and Tactics) - Harvard Business Review - Enhance strategic planning with corporate war games to simulate competitive environments and drive innovation, emphasising thorough preparation and actionable playbooks.
- A New Model for Continuous Transformation - Harvard Business Review - Continuous transformation in organisations requires an agile mindset, ongoing aspirations, and integration into the operating rhythm to keep pace with today's dynamic business environment.
- Overcoming The Modern Productivity Paradox - Forbes - Eliminating application sprawl and focusing on process improvement over individual tasks enhances productivity and reduces inefficiencies in companies.
- Innovate Through Insight - Strategic Thinking Institute - Unlocking unique insights drives strategic innovation, but many execs lack this foundation. Recording and reflecting on insights can lead to valuable outcomes.
Business at the point of impact:
Emerging issues and technology trends can change the way we work and do business.
- Time For Business Leaders To Step Up Their Own AI Training - Forbes - Business leaders must prioritise AI training to lead organisations effectively in AI adoption, focusing on understanding, emotional intelligence, and human-centric approaches.
- The Researcher Trying to Glimpse the Future of AI - TIME - Applying scientific methods to predict future AI impacts, Epoch AI aims to inform global policy with evidence-based forecasting.
- How Can We Meet the AI Moment? - Acast Podcasts - Unlocking the transformative power of generative AI across education, companies, and society by embracing its potential and understanding its impact.
- The state of AI in early 2024: Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value - McKinsey - The rapid growth of generative AI adoption brings substantial business benefits but also challenges around governance and risk management.
- Can Your Company Do Hybrid Better? - Kellogg Insight - Key Insight: Achieving success in the post-pandemic workplace requires a strategic balance between in-person collaboration and remote work flexibility for enhanced performance and talent retention.
- 4 Types of Gen AI Risk and How to Mitigate Them - Harvard Business Review - Harnessing the power of generative AI requires proactive risk management to safeguard against privacy breaches, copyright violations, bias, and misinformation.
- Death of truth misinformation advertising - WIRED - The Latest in Technology, Science, Culture and Business - Automated advertising algorithms can unknowingly fund harmful content, emphasising the importance of human oversight for brand safety and integrity online.
- How Businesses Should (And Should Not) Use AI: A Strategic Blueprint - Forbes - Key Insight: Aligning AI initiatives with strategic goals, emphasising ethics, compliance, and infrastructure, while fostering a culture of innovation and continuous learning.
- The GenAI Blind Spot Leaders Have Now - MIT Sloan Management Review - Leaders must grasp the limitations of generative AI to leverage its potential effectively in organisations and avoid overestimating its reasoning capabilities.
