Signals from the future:
Emerging trends that are likely to drive changes to the way we live, work and do business.
- Beyond Tomorrow: Mega Trends Shaping the Future in 2040 - Impact Lab A brief summary of some megatrends over 3 horizons.
- The Rise of Hypercycle in the Age of Terabyters - Futurist Speaker - All this sensory data aggregated across the planet will enable the Hypercycle to construct a digital mirror-world – a highly detailed simulation of reality that models the state of humanity and the planet at a massive scale. An interesting read on some far horizon technologies and behaviours.
- Australian startup tackles aged care staff shortage with robotics and genAI - MobiHealthNews - Sydney-based startup Andromeda Robotics has integrated generative artificial intelligence into robotics to complement the support provided in aged care.
- Engineers develop an efficient process to make fuel from carbon dioxide - MIT News | Researchers at MIT and Harvard University have developed an efficient process that can convert carbon dioxide to a fuel that can power a fuel cell and generate electricity.
- Solar energy storage breakthrough could make European households self-sufficient - Sifted - A startup from Norway developed a solid hydrogen storage cell - More evidence that decentralisation of the electricity grid is likely.
- Basic income 'unlocked dozens of doors for me,' supporter says amid call for national program - r/Futurology - A report on UBI (Universal Basic Income) showing this support has ancillary benefits beyond being a handout.
- Pilots Testing Electric Airplane Say It's Weirdly Quiet - Futurism - An electric airplane with a range of over 600KM - Still awaiting certification, and along with the FAA reclassification of personal aircraft, could open new modes of transport.
- China sets a 2025 target for mass production of humanoid robots, and says humanoid robots should “become an important new engine of economic growth” - r/Futurology - This is completely fine.
- A Reshoring Renaissance Is Underway - MIT Sloan Management Review - A confluence of factors is driving this trend: Amid supply chain bottlenecks, rising labour and transportation costs, U.S. tariffs on China, and geopolitical tensions, companies recognise the value of reshoring production.
- A Future of Passport-Free Travel: Innovations in Digital Identity and Biometrics - Impact Lab - Digital identity and biometric integration for seamless travel and the elimination of boarding passes. Convenience trumps privacy?
Focus Issue: Carbon Capture and Storage
Today Climate Central scientists have announced that the period between November 2022 and October 2023 was the hottest on record. Ever.
I also came across a new word today, "Heatstreak" which is a period of time longer than a "Heatwave".
I wanted to do a bit of a deep dive into carbon capture as it is often included in the solution-mix for how we're going to tackle global emissions. The problem is that there are some fundamental barriers to this technology (i.e. physics and chemistry) and it is important to be wide-eyed about it.
Let's discuss the physical and chemical challenges. According to thermodynamics, the lowest energy state for the carbon molecule is carbonate, or limestone. If we wait long enough the carbon in the atmosphere will condense into rocks and indeed there are carbon capture start-ups trying to accelerate this process. But these methods are expensive (10x the cost of current carbon pricing) and require lots of energy. And are they just greenwashing by big oil?
Even if we had an imaginary compound that could bind with CO2 and remove it from the atmosphere, the volume required of the magic compound would be over 50% of all chemicals produced worldwide to capture just 10% of worldwide emissions.
These mechanical approaches all suffer from the same fundamental flaw - that they require energy which would otherwise be used elsewhere. So, unless they are 100% powered by renewable or "free" energy sources (i.e. solar) and are not otherwise causing the production of more CO2 - they are not useful at all. And to put the demand required a bit more bluntly, direct capture technology could use 25% of global energy production in 2100.
This is why nearly 99% of actual carbon capture comes from managed forests. The most promising approaches may involve bio-engineered solutions that look to nature to solve the problem.
To be clear - there is no pathway to limiting warming to 1.5C without carbon capture and given we're likely to breach that threshold it is even more important to mitigate the world effects in the latter half of this century. But no matter the solution to carbon removal, not emitting it in the first place is the best option.
Strategic insights
Here are some insights that business leaders can follow to help reduce their carbon footprint:
- Assess and Optimise Carbon Footprint: Conduct a comprehensive assessment of your carbon footprint.
- Leverage Government Policies and Incentives: The Australian government offers various incentives for carbon reduction initiatives.
- Maximize Energy Efficiency: Significantly reduce your carbon footprint by upgrading to energy-efficient technologies. Consider LED lighting, optimising your heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, and implementing smart energy management systems.
- Embrace Renewable Energy: Transitioning to renewable energy sources like solar or wind power can drastically cut your carbon emissions. If installing renewable energy infrastructure isn't feasible for you, explore purchasing renewable energy credits or participating in community solar projects.
- Adopt Green Transportation: Review your transportation policies. Can you encourage carpooling, incentivise the use of public transportation, or integrate electric vehicles into your fleet?
Deep strategy:
Longer form articles rich with insights:
- How to Become a Better Strategic Thinker - Harvard Business Review - A behavioural roadmap to help you overcome any limitations you may have on considering yourself a strategic thinker. I'd take this framework and apply ChatGPT or another AI Assistant to help you work through practical actions specific to your own circumstances.
- How Generative AI Is Changing The DNA Of Digital Transformation - Forbes Innovation - Companies embracing AI are seeing its power to make software engineering and coding more efficient, to augment workflows across the business, to make business functions more predictive and self-healing and to make workers more effective.
- KPIs Are Dead—Why Behaviours Matter More Than Metrics - Forbes Innovation - KPIs and objectives and key results (OKRs), as the bedrock for aligning strategy with execution, are outdated and only work for executives or people with a large amount of discretion in their roles. Instead look at behaviours as a way to promote growth and performance at all levels.
Business at the point of impact:
Emerging issues and technology trends can change the way we work and do business.
- Bridging the expectation-reality gap in machine learning - MIT Technology Review - In a Forrester study launched today and commissioned by Capital One, the majority of business leaders expressed excitement at deploying ML across the enterprise, but data scientist team members said they didn’t yet have all the necessary tools to develop ML solutions at scale. How can organisations overcome this gap?
- How Should Corporate Boards Be Thinking About Generative AI? - Forbes CIO Network - Ash Gupta suggests, “It will be the responsibility of corporate board members to understand each company’s readiness to leverage generative AI in ways that create competitive excellence, as well as mitigate business and stakeholder risk”.
- It’s Time for Boards to Take AI Seriously - Harvard Business Review - 5 key principles for boards to follow to help ensure their organisations are adequately prepared for and to take advantage of AI ensuring that it is aligned to strategy and risks are managed.
- The Distributed Economy: A Potent Antidote to Rising Inequality in the Age of AI - DataDrivenInvestor - A brief overview to the potentials of decentralised finance (DeFI) and how it impacts individuals through network economies.
