More evenly distributed - Urban mobility

Week ending 12 January 2024

This week we dive into a brief overview of where the future of urban mobility is heading. But first, let's see what might be shaping our future.

Signals from the future:

Emerging trends that are likely to drive changes to the way we live, work and do business.

Clean Energy:

Signals continue to show that renewables and batteries are the future for energy.

• U.S. EIA: Solar Will Supply Almost All Growth in U.S. Electricity Generation through 2025 - CleanTechnica - Solar energy will be the primary driver of electricity generation growth in the US, while coal production and consumption will decline.
• U.S. battery storage capacity expected to nearly double in 2024 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Homepage - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Battery storage capacity in the US is expected to double by 2024, surpassing other energy sources. California and Texas lead in capacity additions.
• Pioneering tidal turbine starts generating electricity - Orkney.com - Orbital Marine Power's O2 tidal turbine is now generating electricity and has the capacity to power 2000 homes.

Robots:

More signals that we're on the cusp of something big...

• Figure 01 Humanoid Bot Has Learned to Make Coffee - NextBigFuture.com - Figure has developed a humanoid robot that can make coffee and walk dynamically, marking a significant advancement in robotics.
• 2024 - AI and rise of the robots - Mind Prison - Rapid advancement of AI and robotics will have significant impact on society, including job displacement, cybersecurity risks, and political manipulations.
• Google DeepMind's ALOHA (A Low-cost Open-source Hardware System for Bimanual Teleoperation) for humanoid robots, suggests robots might become widespread sooner than we think. - r/Futurology - Researchers have developed a cost-effective housekeeping robot that uses imitation learning to perform tasks, raising questions about the future of human jobs.

Society:

The way things are today, are unlikely to continue into the future.

• (No) Dig for Victory - brakmark - Victory gardens, popularised during World War II, could be a solution to environmental and food security issues today. They promote sustainability, save money, and diversify the food supply.
• Are These ‘Eco-Cities’ The Future of Sustainable Design? - Atmos - Key Insight: The article explores eco-city designs, such as sponge cities and floating cities, as potential solutions for sustainable urban design. Challenges include retrofitting existing infrastructure and ensuring scalability. The need for a comprehensive approach to decarbonising cities and addressing oppressive systems is emphasised. Activists question the effectiveness of COP28 and suggest finding a new approach to address climate change.
• Families will change dramatically - Recent study shows evolution of kinship structures through 2100 - Families are projected to become smaller in the future, leading to older grandparents and a need for alternative support systems.

Tech:

Technology giveth and taketh:

• From indoor solar to light-based internet, photonics offers a brighter future - ZDNET - Photonics technology showcased at CES 2024 revolutionizes electronics industry with faster data transmission and improved energy efficiency. Ambient Photonics introduces low-light solar cells for versatile and efficient device power. Slux leads in Li-Fi technology for faster, more secure communication. Impact includes quicker internet, longer-lasting devices, cost-cutting, reduced environmental harm, and potential job creation. Photonics offers a brighter and more connected future.
• "Synthetically-Generated Genomically Targeted Plagues" Will Be the Future of Warfare, says New Defense Report - Advancements in biotechnology could result in engineered pathogens being used as weapons, targeting specific individuals based on their genetic markers.

Health:

• Woman Uses Electric Car to Power Son's Dialysis Machine During Blackout - Futurism - Electric vehicles and Tesla Powerwalls prove their worth during a blackout in Queensland, Australia, by providing emergency power supply.
• Emerging Medical Technologies: A Glimpse into the Future of Healthcare - Jone.Live – Emerging Technologies News - A thorough roundup of topics and links related to healthcare technology.

Focus Issue: The future of urban mobility

I selected this week's edition after a discussion this morning with my wife on the annoyances of for-hire e-scooters and how they are always in the way on the footpath. So, this week's deep dive is into the future of urban mobility.

This is certainly an area of life ripe for transformation and you could argue that shared e-scooters are an "innovation", but being most generous, these things are just tinkering around the edges.

Cars emit half of Australia's transport sector carbon emissions (24% of all green house gas emissions), and are Australia's 3rd highest carbon source, and still trending upwards:

While there are some substantial wins to achieve in the energy sector, personal use of cars is one area where some improvements can be made on reducing our carbon emissions. So, let's go through some recent developments that might be helpful.

A report from ISPO.com underscores the burgeoning trend of shared, electric, and autonomous vehicles, a paradigm shift driven by the urgent need to curtail CO2 emissions and enhance efficiency. This dovetails with the burgeoning popularity of bicycles, particularly e-bikes, buoyed by improved infrastructure and the convenience of bike-sharing programs.

The concept of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is gaining traction, challenging the traditional notion of car ownership by offering a more cost-effective and practical alternative. ISPO.com further highlights the pivotal role of the Internet of Things (IoT) and big data in crafting personalised transportation solutions, optimising travel based on individual needs and preferences.

McKinsey's vision for 2035 paints a picture of a mobility ecosystem characterised by increased intelligence, seamlessness, and sustainability. The report indicates a decline in private car use, with governments and consumers alike gravitating towards more efficient and eco-friendly transportation options. This shift is also reflected in the Visa Economic Empowerment Institute's findings, which reveal that open-loop, contactless payment systems are not only enhancing ridership but also promoting financial inclusion and reducing carbon emissions.

Looking skyward, the World Economic Forum introduces the concept of vertical air mobility, a futuristic vision where flying cars and driverless buses could become integral to urban transport networks. This aligns with the growing emphasis on sustainability and the need for innovative solutions to environmental challenges. Meanwhile, Visa's survey indicates that digital payments are revolutionising urban mobility, with a significant majority of respondents expecting and preferring contactless payment options for public transit. This is indicative of a broader trend towards digitalisation and convenience in urban transportation.

McKinsey & Company's analysis on micromobility (linked earlier) also reveals the profound impact that a shift from private cars to bicycles could have on urban environments. This move could lead to less congestion, improved environmental health, and economic benefits, provided there is sufficient investment in infrastructure and safety measures. Forbes' overview of global trends for 2024 suggests that urbanisation and the need to address environmental concerns will be key drivers of change, with artificial intelligence playing a significant role in shaping the future. These insights point to a future where technology and sustainability are deeply intertwined in the fabric of urban mobility.

Consider these strategic insights:

• Embrace Mobility as a Service (MaaS): Australian businesses with car fleets should investigate MaaS platforms. The potential to integrate various transportation options to offer seamless, on-demand travel experiences can be compelling and avoid upfront capital expense. This approach can cater to the diminishing appeal of car ownership and the rising demand for efficient, shared mobility solutions.
• Leverage IoT and Big Data: Utilising IoT and big data analytics can enable businesses to offer personalised urban mobility services. High quality training data for AI is extremely valuable, so companies which can collect this data will have an advantage in the future.
• Invest in Micromobility Infrastructure: With the growing popularity of e-bikes and bicycles, there is a significant opportunity for Australian businesses to develop infrastructure that supports micromobility, such as lobbying for bike lanes and sharing systems, to alleviate urban congestion and promote sustainable transport. Employee benefits packages could include micromobility options.
• Explore Vertical Air Mobility: While still in the early stages, vertical air mobility presents a futuristic urban transport opportunity. Australian businesses should monitor developments in this area and consider partnerships or investments to position themselves at the forefront of this emerging trend.

Deep strategy:

Longer form articles rich with insights:

• Ten unsung digital and AI ideas shaping business - McKinsey & Company - Unsung digital and AI ideas shaping modern business landscape: software for building businesses, scalability, data, adaptability, generative AI impact, agile teams, value through transformations.

Business at the point of impact:

Emerging issues and technology trends can change the way we work and do business.

• Harnessing AI: What Businesses Need to Know in ChatGPT’s Second Year - HBS Working Knowledge - Explores the trends and implications of generative AI, including responsible AI, human-AI collaboration, flexibility in the digital revolution, and using AI for strategic differentiation in the business world.
• How AI Assistants Will Reshape Corporate Strategy From The Top Down - Forbes - AI assistants are becoming essential tools for corporate decision-making, but humans must still play a crucial role. Companies must ensure reliable AI and have humans verify and provide expertise. Adoption of generative AI will give companies a competitive advantage.
• Business Leaders-Here's Your Strategic AI Roadmap For 2024 - Forbes - AI adoption is crucial for business success in 2024; generative AI is revolutionising work efficiency and innovation. Business leaders must take a proactive approach to AI adoption and leverage data curation to drive digitalisation at scale.
• AI alone is not enough. Here's how to unlock its true business value - Business Insider - Organisations must incorporate automation into their AI initiatives to leverage its potential and achieve new value.
• AI Arbitrage Is The Next Frontier Of Value Creation - Forbes - AI has the potential to disrupt the IT services industry, boosting productivity and innovation. Five tactics can be used to leverage AI arbitrage and gain a competitive advantage.
• Is GenAI’s Impact on Productivity Overblown? - Harvard Business Review - Generative AI, specifically large language models (LLMs), may not be as beneficial for productivity as initially thought due to their ability to produce convincing falsities and potential negative effects on employees and internal processes. Leaders should approach LLM adoption cautiously.
• Webinar: Finding Transformation Opportunities with Generative AI - MIT Sloan Management Review - Generative AI has the potential to transform business practices in customer experience, employee experience, operations, and business models.
• What Generative AI Could Mean for People with Intellectual Disabilities - Medium - Generative AI offers hope for individuals with intellectual disabilities by creating personalised tools and platforms for communication, learning, and job performance.
• Webinar: Preparing Your Organization for a Generative Future - MIT Sloan Management Review - Harnessing the power of generative AI in business and preparing for a future of AI-driven innovation and potential.
• AI Robotics will Drive the Future of Ecommerce - Retail TouchPoints - AI robotics is revolutionising the future of ecommerce by transforming warehouses into crucial components of the customer experience. The adoption of AI robotics is essential for organisations to stay competitive in the retail industry.