Signals from the future
- Heata is transforming the UK's household energy costs with waste heat reuse - This start-up straps servers to hot water heaters to capture waste heat.
- World oil, gas, coal demand to peak by 2030, IEA says - Reuters - the IEA said peaks in oil, natural gas and coal demand were visible this decade in its scenario based on governments' current policies.
- Gene Editing, AI Could 'Indicate Start of Posthumanism Era': RAND Futurism Exercise - The Sociable - By the year 2045, gene editing and Machine Learning R&D could indicate “the start of the posthumanism era”.
- Mini Nuclear Reactors Poised to Revolutionize UK Power Generation - Impact Lab – A Laboratory of the Future Human Experience - Rolls-Royce is planning to usher in a new era of power generation in the UK with mini nuclear reactors that could be operational by the end of this decade.
- AI recipes for personalised health, taste and sustainability - Happiest Health - Will help AI generate better recipes, but maybe an input into food printers?
- Space is starting to look like the better mining operation | Ars Technica - Production of metals in space could overtake Earth production in 30 to 40 years.
- Personal aviation is about to get interesting - Eli Dourado - Regulators changing rules to allow more innovation in personal aircraft. A fascinating and well written article.
- Scientists Find That Human Workers Get Lazier When Their Teammate Is a Robot - Futurism - New research finds that when we work alongside a robot, we tend to get a little lazier.
- Lab-Grown Meat Prices Expected to Drop Dramatically - Newsweek - Lab-grown meat could see a significant decrease in price if it continues its current trajectory, potentially matching conventional meat costs by 2030.
- Quantum Computers in 2023: Where They Are Now and What’s Next - Singularity Hub - A good overview of what quantum computing is and how it may impact things in the future.
Focus Issue: Robotics
One of the many technologies riding the tail of Generative AI is advanced robotics. Just consider these recent signals:
- Amazon trials humanoid robots to 'free up' staff - BBC News
- Of Course, Austin Has a Robot Tattoo Shop Now - Futurism
- Figure 01 humanoid takes first public steps - The Robot Report
And then consider some mega-trends happening in the background:
- Western democracies reshoring manufacturing away from China/Asia
- Energy efficiency and carbon emission reduction
- Improvements in battery, availability of 5G, etc.
- Demand for "infrastructure" i.e. housing, roads, hospitals, cities, climate damage repair/abatement, etc.
All of this means that we are likely to start seeing more and more advanced robotics enter the marketplace. ARK Invest nicely shows how Neural Networks are the catalyst:
Just have a look through this Github linking dozens of research papers across Reasoning, Planning, Manipulation, Instructions & Navigation, and Simulation Frameworks: GT-RIPL/Awesome-LLM-Robotics.
Also, NVIDIA trained a robot hand to do those pen spins we all learned in high school using an LLM (GPT-4).
So, the secret sauce are LLMs and this year has seen an unprecedented leap in capability. Research is increasingly gearing towards enabling LLMs to run on more portable devices or in smaller compute environments.
Another interesting way to look at this is through Metaculus. This website is a variation on a Delphi Method where it sources expert opinions on a range of topics to provide a range likelihood answer to a question.
The majority of experts in this question are essentially saying that we can be 90% sure that by 2040 sub 1000 USD general purpose robotic manipulators will be available.
But it's never easy to predict the future, which is why futures thinking practitioners advocate for the use of scenarios or multiple futures to help strengthen your strategic thinking.
However, if the emergence of LLMs and generative AI over the past 5 years, and most notably this past year since ChatGPT was released are anything to go on, we might expect advanced robotics to suddenly arrive without warning despite decades of development.
Business at the point of impact
Emerging issues and technology trends can change the way we work and do business. These articles tend to be long-form and are rich with insights.
- Rethinking Uncertainty in an Insecure Age | The Walrus - The story behind and a more recently analysis of the Global Trends 2040 report. Essential reading though with a Canadian slant but has relevance for Australia.
- Do We Have a Real Strategy? - Strategic Thinking Institute - Sharpen the saw and go back to basics on Strategy.
- The Complete Guide to Alternative-Proteins: Part 1 - The Problem & Solutions - A look at the problems with our current food system and learn where the emissions actually come from and then dive into the solutions landscape. Packed with information and insights.
- Why Your Strategy For AI Might Be To Not Do AI - Forbes - Small Business For some, being a fast follower for AI might be the right strategy.
Other links
Here are some other media worth your time.
- Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) And The Coming Wave - Forbes - CIO Network - Overview of a new book The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-First Century's Greatest Dilemma, the potential impact of generative AI and what might come next - Artificial General intelligence (AGI)
- Gartner Unveils 2024 Tech Trends — GenAI Takes the Lead - Digital Information World - A round up of Gartner's trends for 2024.
- Want a 4-day workweek? Invest in AI - Fast Company - Artificial intelligence might be the vehicle to deliver the 4-day work week.
- Gen AI and the future of work - McKinsey & Company - An interactive and brief intro to generative AI with some links to more in-depth articles
- The Climate Solutions Map - Climate Drift - Several mind-maps of over 220 solutions spanning 12 critical sectors: Transportation, Power, Food & Agriculture, Workforce, Building, Software, Finance, Circular Economy, Carbon Removal, Nature Conservation, and Water.
