Scenario analysis canvas
Develop new strategies that adapt to a foresight scenario
The Scenario Analysis Canvas is used to decompose a foresight scenario and to try to better understand the impact this future might have on your organisation. This canvas helps you uncover the threats, opportunities and the strategies you may use to deal with them. It also helps you understand who your current and future stakeholders may be, as well as helping you define which indicators may show this scenario emerging in the future.
First, an analysis is performed of the various threats and opportunities that this scenario presents. Then workshop participants ideate some strategies that can help deal with threats and take advantage of opportunities.
Next the participants identify the current and future stakeholders of this scenario. These stakeholders can be categorised into ones that are resistors, channelers or accelerators.
Finally, a number of indicators are defined which can be used in the future to help identify if this, or parts of this, scenario are emerging.
If you have a large scenario team, you may want to split the work of scenario analysis into smaller groups.
Assemble your scenario team in a suitable work space. Review the scenarios with the team and give time for the team to discuss them or seek any clarifications.
Select a scenario. Have the scenario team brainstorm both Threats and Opportunities at the same time. It is helpful to do this individually first, then in smaller groups/tables, before then presenting to the entire group.
Through a series of iterations, categorise and combine both Threats and Opportunities that have been added by workshop team members. While categorising, allow team members to also place the items along the prioritisation axes.
Validate with the workshop team the Threats and Opportunities. Allow for team members to provide objections or modifications.
Breaking into smaller groups, ask workshop team members to brainstorm potential Strategies to mitigate Threats and capitalise on Opportuntities.
Through a series of iterations, categories and combine the Strategies while also prioritising them. Continuously test strategies to ensure that they adequately address a Threat or Opportunity and refine where needed.
Ask workshop team members to brainstorm the stakeholders they can identify from this scenario. Categorise them by how they will react to the scenario: Resistors will try to stop or avoid the future in the scenario, Channelers will allow the future to happen and try to channel developments to their favour, and Accelerators will take active steps to bring about this future as quickly as possible.
Finally, ask workshop team members to brainstorm a number of indicators that could show that this future is emerging. These could be things like "headlines from the future", specific numbers or events. Align the indicators according to how measurable they are, and how accessible the measurement is.
The Scenario Analysis Canvas was inspired by the following approaches/books:
