Strategy Stress Testing Canvas
See how each strategy stacks up against all scenarios
A key reason why scenario planning delivers more robust strategy is that it provides a way to take multiple perspectives from the future. Use this canvas to help compare and align different strategies from different scenarios. Higher scoring strategies can then be selected as "no regret" options, and lower scoring strategies can either be "big bets" or "long bets" depending on your tolerance for risk or desire for innovation.
This tool is best used a few days or weeks after the scenario analysis workshops. This will give participants enough time to digest and think more deeply about the identified strategies.
Gather your scenario team together in a suitable workspace. It is helpful to have the scenario analysis canvases handy for reference.
First, have workshop participants pick out the strategies from each scenario and place on the stress test canvas. Workshop participants will then agree on a score for each strategy that relates to how well the strategy will perform under the conditions from each scenario.
Next, participants will then select the high scoring strategies as "No regret" options that could be pursued by your organisation. Participants can then place the remaining strategies of interest into either the "Big bet" or "Long bet" areas. Participants may choose not puruse some strategies if they don't score very well in either scenario or for whatever reasons they may decide.
Assemble your scenario team in a suitable work space. Review the scenario analysis canvases with the team and give time for the team to discuss them or seek any clarifications.
Ask participants to select the strategies of interest from each scenario, and then place the strategies in the Strategy column of the table. The selection criteria can be determined by the team, but generally selecting strategies that have higher value and low to mid complexity are good options.
Ask participants to provide a score individually for each strategy in each scenario. Any model can be used for scoring. A good score model is "out of 5".
Participants may need to review the scenarios and even discuss with others. Consider giving a small amount of time to the author of each strategy to explain their idea in more detail.
Once each participant has a score for each strategy, obtain a consensus score from the participants for each strategy in each scenario. This could be done by averaging the scores from all participants.
Discuss with participants any strategies that could be slightly modified to score better. Allow for participants to made adjustments and changes and then rescore the strategy.
Discuss with participants what the criteria for "no regret" strategies should be. It could be a rule where strategies with a certain score or higher, or could be more intuitive. "No regret" strategies should be options that are sensible and obvious to make for the workshop participants.
Also ask participants to place the strategies they believe represent "Big bets" and "long bets". A "Big bet" could be a strategy that might have an average score, might be slightly risky or require a complex implementation but would deliver a significant pay-off. A "long bet" could be a strategy that scores poorly but could address a so-called "black swan" and may have a low enough implementation cost to warrant investment nontheless.
Once a final list of strategies has been categories into the bets, allow participants to review and discuss.
