The topic of nuclear energy has again come up, this time prompted by the Australian Opposition Party (Liberal/National Coalition), which might seem like political tactics, but with interest increasing globally as countries try to grapple with achieving significant emissions reductions, it's worth taking a deeper look.
But first, this week's signals...
Signals from the future:
Emerging trends that are likely to drive changes to the way we live, work and do business.
- At SXSW, themes of AI, mythmaking and the future of humanity collide - Exploring the nexus of technology and storytelling at SXSW, highlighting ethical AI considerations, myth's influence, and the call for responsible innovation.
- Optimus Teslabot is Ready - NextBigFuture.com - New Job Posting: To drive the deployment of robots for trial application.
- States Are Lining Up to Outlaw Lab-Grown Meat - WIRED - Emerging legislation threatens to ban cultivated meat production, sparking controversy and highlighting the clash between traditional and alternative meat industries.
- The World’s Scientists Are Arguing About Whether or Not to Block the Sun - PopularMechanics - Controversy surrounds solar geoengineering as a climate change strategy, with risks of unpredictable outcomes and biodiversity loss.
- ICON unveils the future of 3D printed architecture at SXSW - DesignBoom - Revolutionising construction with cutting-edge 3D printing, robotic technology, and AI tools for cost efficiency, sustainability, and design innovation.
- Advanced tech is harming worker wellness, study finds • The Register - The Register: Enterprise Technology News and Analysis - Advanced technologies negatively impact worker wellbeing, emphasising the need for inclusive technology adoption prioritising employee welfare and involving workers in decision-making.
- This is the future: How my EV earned $100 in two hours supporting the grid in a heatwave - r/Futurology - Electric vehicles as grid support: utilising bidirectional chargers can turn EVs into storage assets, addressing energy demand challenges and fostering innovation in Australia.
Focus Issue: Small modular reactors and the future of nuclear energy.
The prospect of using small modular reactors (SMRs) for nuclear power generation in Australia has been a topic of debate, with some proponents seeing it as a potential solution to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, multiple factors suggest that SMRs are unlikely to play a significant role in Australia's energy transition in the near term.
First, the CSIRO's 2023 report states that nuclear power, including SMRs, is not economically viable for Australia due to high costs, long development times, and the absence of necessary legal and operational frameworks. The report suggests that nuclear energy is unlikely to contribute significantly to Australia's net-zero emissions goal by 2050, especially given the rapid growth and lower costs of renewable energy sources like wind and solar.
Second, the cancellation of NuScale Power's first SMR project in Idaho, which was cited by the Australian opposition as evidence of a "burgeoning" global nuclear industry, further underscores the challenges of SMR deployment. The projected cost of the NuScale project had increased from $3.6 billion to $9.3 billion, and it failed to secure sufficient subscriptions for the required capital.
Additionally, nuclear power stations are banned in every state and territory in Australia due to concerns about health and environmental risks. The construction time for nuclear power stations averages 9.4 years, compared to 1-3 years for wind or solar projects. The cost of building and operating nuclear power stations in Australia is also prohibitively high, and nuclear power poses significant risks to the community, environment, health, and economy, as demonstrated by major nuclear disasters such as Chernobyl and Fukushima.
It should be noted through that many of these assumptions regarding expense, safety, etc., are based on the concept of building the reactor onsite. The main reason why SMRs are so interesting is that they can be assembled in a factory, shipped to where they are needed, and retrieved 18-24 months later to be refuelled. Some reactors are conveniently the size of shipping containers and could be game changers for disaster relief replacing diesel generators. There is a great podcast from a16z that outlines some of these technologies, but also viewpoints from the US Dept. of Energy which is spearheading initiatives to triple nuclear energy by 2050.
Despite these challenges, some companies like GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy are actively developing SMRs, with the BWRX-300 designed to be cost-effective, safe, and provide 300 MW of carbon-free power. GE Hitachi is working on global projects, including partnerships and discussions in Canada, the U.S., and Poland. And again, there is NuScale Power, offering safer and more flexible options for the nuclear industry through their VOYGR Power Plants.
The European Union is also focusing on advanced nuclear technologies and SMRs to enhance safety and potentially integrate with renewable energy sources, while working to diversify its nuclear fuel supply and reduce reliance on Russian fuel.
While SMRs offer potential benefits in terms of carbon-free power generation and safety improvements, their high costs, long development times, and the lack of necessary legal and regulatory frameworks in Australia make them an unlikely short-term solution for the country's energy transition. Australia's focus on renewable energy sources like solar and wind, which are cheaper, abundant, safe, and readily available, is likely to remain the primary path towards achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
However, SMRs could potentially play a role in Australia's long-term energy mix if the economic, regulatory, and social challenges are addressed. Do not doubt that if the technical issues can be solved, that countries the US will become major players in this space and many assumptions about cost will be dramatically different.
But for now, the country's emphasis on renewable energy appears to be the most feasible and cost-effective approach.
Consider these strategic insights:
- Monitor global SMR developments: While SMRs may not be immediately viable in Australia, businesses should stay informed about advancements in SMR technology and global projects to identify potential future opportunities or partnerships.
- Advocate for regulatory framework updates: Engage with policymakers to discuss the potential benefits of SMRs and advocate for updates to the legal and regulatory frameworks that currently ban nuclear power in Australia, paving the way for future adoption if economically feasible.
- Explore hybrid energy solutions: Investigate the possibility of integrating SMRs with renewable energy sources like solar and wind to create a more robust and reliable low-carbon energy mix, leveraging the benefits of both technologies.
- Develop local supply chains: Proactively establish relationships with global SMR manufacturers and develop local supply chains to support the potential future deployment of SMRs in Australia, creating new business opportunities and ensuring readiness if the technology becomes viable.
Deep strategy:
Longer form articles rich with insights:
- How to Decide If AI Should Be Part of Your Growth Strategy - Harvard Business Review - Harnessing AI strategically can propel businesses to new heights by aligning technology with business strategy and staying ahead of competitors.
- Overcoming Common Challenges to Disruptive Innovation - Harvard Business Review - Unlocking growth through disruptive innovation requires overcoming common challenges and leveraging strategies to transform markets with innovative solutions.
- The Missing Link Between Strategy and Innovation - Harvard Business Review - Aligning innovation with strategic priorities is crucial for driving meaningful growth. Integration of strategy into the innovation process is key.
- What French Bakeries Get Right About Strategy - Harvard Business Review - Embracing tradition and proximity to competitors can help traditional businesses stand out and succeed even in highly competitive markets.
- Harnessing Imagination to Drive Innovation - Harvard Business Review - In a changing trade landscape, companies must pivot to innovation-driven growth by fostering a culture of creative thinking and new possibilities.
Business at the point of impact:
Emerging issues and technology trends can change the way we work and do business.
- How People Are Really Using GenAI - Harvard Business Review - Unlocking the vast potential of Generative AI reveals diverse applications across industries, transforming how we work, create, learn, and make decisions.
- Is Your AI-First Strategy Causing More Problems Than It’s Solving? - Harvard Business Review - Balanced AI strategy prioritising human needs and ethical principles leads to effective and beneficial outcomes.
- Better together: Process and task mining, a powerful AI combo - McKinsey & Company - Unlock operational efficiency by combining process mining and task mining for profound performance improvements and substantial cost savings in business operations.
